Gamescom 2015, the show that missed the boat

Gamescom was kind of the show that was destined to greatness. With 335’000 visitors in 2014 (including the mainstream public, not just the press like E3), it’s the most visited gaming event, and it made the headlines in 2014 with announcements like the (false) exclusivity of Rise of the Tomb Raider for XboxOne. In 2015, the German show just had to score again to establish itself as a major hub for European gaming, different enough from E3 to rival it. That did not happen as Cologne’s assets faded.

Microsoft was the only manufacturer to hold a conference and thus had to set the pace and give added value to Gamescom’s offering. But the reveal of Crackdown 3 or Halo Wars 2 is of little interest to the European consumers at large : far too classic to surprise or impress. Platinum Games’s Scalebound stands out but to me it is kind of a contradiction in itself. You definitely can’t pick a Heroic-Fantasy world with a cool dragon and stuff and mix it with a youngish dudebro to much like DmC’s Dante impostor.

And there is the Mafia III case. Biggest reveal of this Gamescom 2015, there had been at least one tweet per day before the show to inform us that, wow, Mafia III would be an exclusive reveal at Gamescom, of course don’t tell anyone… No seriously, Bethesda leaks during E3 were already ridiculous but 2K’s handling of this is beyond shameful.

Final Fantasy XV was supposed to be the big thing of this Gamescom, but the content shown was so little that it was barely noticeable. I won’t bother you again with the dismal Dawn trailer that tells us even less than the ones of 5 or 10 years ago. The only (and damn short) gameplay above actually informs us that 1/ the frame rate suffers hell (new thing, since it was fine in Duscae) 2/ Xylomids are back! Fantastic, it’s like saying GT7 will have tyres. We’re seriously far of the tremendous expectations FFXV triggers and the numerous questions raised by Duscae. Tabata has missed the boat despite promising a great ride, and that doesn’t bode well for FFXV development in general…

But not everything was terrible and this gameplay of Mirror’s Edge Catalyst makes no mistakes in enhancing the original experience to new generation heights : the inside of the buildings and the outside world, lightning effects are among to best ever shown on a console. The gameplay seems intact and the story darker, with more depth put into charcaters. As many reasons to save the date for it release on February 25^th.

Let’s stay at DICE, the best developer on the planet from a technical point of view, with Star Wars Battlefront that presents its aerial gameplay with the usual grandeur and breathtaking style. This is very impressive and I do hope that making a dedicated mode means shifting to more accessible controls because BF4’s aerial vehicles are a real pain.

Kinda discreet showing for Metal Gear Solid V here. The trailer does have a good rhythm, lots of appealing sniper rifles, but reveals little in terms of story… That said, I had the impression I saw Psycho Mantis.

Well, that’s about it… no fresh sniper stuff for Black Ops III, everything was shown at E3, including multiplayer matches that traditionally are premiered at Gamescom. Cologne clearly lost something big here. The European event didn’t do much to promote the Japanese games on the showfloor (or is it the stupid journalists bent on their AAA games all day long?). KoeiTecmo had somewhat a big showing, with games like Samurai Warriors 4-II or Arslan Warriors (which is quite a big manga IP at the moment), and having the most striking reveal in announcing a brand-new Attack on Titan game for all Playstation platforms. Something that should matter for a show neighboring Japan-friendly countries, but nobody in the stupid European game establishment cares. Such a pity.

This Gamescom 2015 downright wasted its trump cards and potential, and went back to a status of “mini-E3”, raising concerns on Europe’s capability to set its own gaming pace without lazily receiving US trends.

Nintendo’s lost battle in the UK

In continental Europe, especially here in France, many people keep believing in Nintendo despite its waning business and influence. On the other side of the Channel though, things are quite different as Nintendo is being ousted pretty much.

My good friends of Vgchartz have found this very informative chart comparing January-February in 2013-2014 software sales.

In units at first, the situation doesn’t seem that bad. 3DS games sales progress by one third and WiiU games sales double. But when putting things into perspective, the business is definitely not that rosy…

WiiU benefited from the release of Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze in February, and has nothing in the following months. In 2013, games came in March-April, so WiiU software should be flattish until Mario Kart 8, which will collide with a more ambitious and innovative, WatchDogs. 3DS is even worse. The release schedule is nearly blank : Professor Layton vs Ace Attorney and the traditional Nintendo rehashes. Shin Megami Tensei IV is even more invisible than the Malaysian plane. 3DS software is unlikely to perform as well as Luigi’s Mansion, Fire Emblem and Animal Crossing did last year. Here again, it should end up flat or declining.

Let’s get into hard facts and figures. First thing that comes to mind : PS4 and XboxOne sell each more software than 3DS despite being fresh on the market. While a lot fanboy journalists (at least here in France) keep babbling about 3DS «domination», it’s obviously very different in the real world : since January, 3DS games have been bogged down in the depth of the UK charts, when they’re not kicked by the vigorous line-up of competing systems. The Sony family sells 1’338’000 games (3 systems), Xbox family sells 1’487’000 on only 2 systems, whereas the large Nintendo family (4 systems) sells only 649’000. This is almost three time less than the others despite more active platforms. 

In value, the beating is harder still : PS4 or XboxOne each generate more revenues than the entire Nintendo family! The Kyoto-based firm is in a sort of scissors crisis : WiiU and 3DS progression is big enough in value to compensate the collapsing Wii/DS market. Nintendo make up for only 13,5% of the UK’s game market. Down from already not-so-stellar 16,4% in the same perio lest year. Sony’s or Microsoft’s market share is four times as big, with less active systems. The Japanese manufacturer has long bet on scale economies, setting lower prices to attract the most customers. But when price-demand elasticity doesn’t work anymore, such strategy leads to financial disaster.

The lost battle of England might be the first of a long series for Nintendo. British players punish the lack of renewal, outdated visuals, lack of ambition, broken promises and casual focus. How much time before France, Italy, Germany and the rest of Europe gets fed up with ever-identical rehashes? How long before the casual market dries up like in the UK? Iwata should get to work, clock is ticking.

PS4, Sony’s perfect plan

All the data from November, and especially NPD sales figures, confirm the extraordinary dynamic of the PS4. 2,1 million systems had been sold as for December 1^st. This is the most massive launch in gaming history, and still it includes only 2 of the 3 major gaming markets. Of course, with 2 million systems sold until December 8, XboxOne is not far behind and we have to go into details to ascertain which is really in the lead.

First, PS4 sold more than XboxOne in November in the US, despite an unfavorable Black Friday and the popularity of the Xbox brand at home. Another crucial point is that PS4 is sold out EVERYWHERE. Amazon has no PS4 to sell before january, scalpers are making fortunes. In Europe right now, you have more chances to spot the Monster of the Loch Ness than a PS4. On the contrary, numerous testimonies show that XboxOne is in stock here and there in the US, and there are a small stock in the electronics shop near my working place. In also interesting to see the sales ratio of the launch titles : every single one sells more on PS4, including American sports games, and shooters (CoD Ghosts and BF4) despite ad campaigns done in association with Microsoft. In Europe, the gap is enormous, XboxOne dived 75% on second week, while PS4 sells more constantly since everyone landing on a shelf is taken at once. In Spain, PS4 sells thrice as fast as XboxOne. In Britain, land of the X360, the PS4 launch was far larger than for XboxOne. In Germany the week XboxOne released, the best-selling next-gen games were FIFA14 and Assassin’s Creed 4 on… PS4! Germans preferred staring at the PS4 box during one week rather than playing the games on XboxOne! (continued laughter) No need to elaborate on WiiU : with only 220K units sold in November in the US, it goes straight into retirement. It is rather funny that Sony sells that many PS4 with barely any TV ads (al least here in France) while Microsoft and Nintendo are flooding the channels with commercial, and yet not competing in stores. But you may know all that already. The big question is : why?

Didn’t XboxOne have the best line-up? Wasn’t Mario 3D World the “higest rated next-gen games”, as those pathetic fools like to proclaim? Wasn’t 3DS supposed to steal the spotlight with all its hits? First, consumers are not stupid enough to make their choice just he launch line-up. No, no one buys a 300, 400 or 500€ system just to play for the holidays. Gamers think in temporality : they examine the past, the present and the future before deciding.

Present, first. That is of course the launch line-up, where Sony loses, but not only. There is technology : PS4 is seen as more advanced because entirely dedicated to gaming. WiiU is out of the race, because you don’t sell current tech at for the price of the next. It’s also price, or more exactly quality/price ratio : gamers see far more value in PS4 than in WiiU. In communication, Sony has taken a clear advantage by refusing to compromise with casual gaming or general entertainment, when Nintendo keeps trying to appeal to moms and Microsoft killed it with their “TV, TV, TV!”. Sony (sincerely or not) has supported second hand games from the very beginning when Microsoft had vowed to destroy it. Indies are constantly put on the stage. In short, everything Sony has said was sweet to the early-adopters’ ear.

Future now. What will I play in 6 months, 1 year, 2 years? WiiU vanishes again, for third parties left for good and the line-up being scarce. Half a dozen of games will be no match against Destiny, DriveClub, The Witcher 3, The Order 1886, Titanfall, Star Wars Battlefront, Infamous Second Son, Quantum Break, Elder Scrolls Online, FFXV, Mirror’s Edge 2, Mass Effect 4, Kingdom Hearts 3, The Division, Thief, Metal Gear Solid 5 to mention a few. Between XboxOne and PS4, the battle is tight. Infamous, DriveClub, FFXIV, The Order, Deep Down and a distant Uncharted will face Titanfall, Quantum Break, Project Spark, Halo 5 et Sunset Overdrive.

Churchill used to say “The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you can see”. That’s what the gamer will do, and this is the most important element. Who got the best exclusives? Who got the most? Where did I find the best experience? Nintendo is out once more : Red Dead Redemption, Mass Effect, Battlefield, Uncharted, Naruto, Assassin’s Creed, Final Fantasy, Gran Turismo, Forza, Gears of War, Crysis, Remember Me, Metal Gear Solid, Halo, Skyrim, Tekken, Bioshock, Dead Space, Call of Duty, all those were on the on the other side. Mario and Zelda can’t do everything. Beyond that, Sony has several aces up its sleeve. Japanese games in general, because many small IPs that have a high degree of loyalty have deep roots in the Playstation ecosystem. You find Tales of, Atelier, Hyperdimension Neptune, Drakengard, Yakuza, Valkyria Chronicles, Persona, Disgea or more recent IPs like The Witch and The Hundred Knights, Toki Towa. That represents a limited number of fans, but it has some importance in terms of brand image. Similarly, there are what I call “image games” : Tearaway, Pupetter, Rain, The Unfinished Swann, Journey, Beyond among others. Those are not, I think, intended to sell any good (they don’t, actually), but are made to improve the brand image of the manufacturer. Because even if the player hasn’t purchased those games, he at least will have heard about it. He will then associate the positive feelings those games infer (risk-taking, originality, poetry, art…) with Sony’s brand image and it will help when will come the time to choose the new console. And there’s the behavior of the others : Nintendo and Microsoft have been pilfering the licenses of others to prevail, and by doing that they deceived the gamers. Microsoft has lied about Star Ocean 4, they lied about Tales of Vesperia. Nintendo lied about Ninja Gaiden 3 Razor’s Edge, they lied about Rayman Legends. Gamers remember that, why should they trust them again? No wonder Microsoft hesitates before launching XboxOne in Japan : the Japanese are outraged and ready to make them pay. Meanwhile, no PS3 exclusive has been temporary, never.

Sony took a hit with the PS3. They learned the hard way that you don’t win a generation just because you won the previous one. They worked tirelessly to make improvements in every department in order to prepare the future. They refined their strategy when their competitors were re-using old fashioned methods. Next-gen, which is now current-gen, isn’t over. It might have not even begun yet, but Sony has placed its pawns to put the others in check in every corner.