Enough of E3! Let’s talk about other games #2018

Nelke and the Legendary Alchemists (PS4/PSVita/Switch)

This is fresh of this week. As promised by Gust, the Atelier series takes a different path this year. Nelke, the protagonist, is not an alchemist but an aristocrat ! She’ll have to ask the services of famous heroines of the series (Meruru, Ayesha, Marie…) to help her develop her land. It would therefore be an Atelier game played from the client’s perspective instead of being the alchemist ! Rather refreshing, and another Vita version is more than welcome.

World End Syndrome (PS4/PSVita/Switch)

Still no news of Arc System Works’ visual novel, which is supposed to mix dating and mystery. Delayed to summer quite a while ago, it’s high time we knew when we’ll be able to solve the cases of the coastal town of Mihate.

Tokyo Chronos (PSVR)

Another visual novel full of eerie murders, but in virtual reality this time. The details are kept for Anime Expo, the biggest western event for Japanese AA games. For now, we just have this sentence « I was killed, who’s the culprit ? ».

NG (PSVita)

Here it is ! The spiritual successor to the glorious Death Mark is being finalized for PSVita at Experience. No less spooky than the latter, NG puts away fantastical places and aims to juxtapose daily life and horror. A rather interesting mix that will put maximum pressure on characters themsleves eerie enough, but risking an horrible fate.

Bullet Girls Phantasia (PS4/PSVita)

Gone missing for 8 months, Bullet Girls Phantasia finally comes back to us with a release date in August. The girls of the airsoft club are going to be warped (with their equipment) in a heroic-fantasy world where they’ll meet no less attractive females. Elves, magic user, knight, catgirl will fight along in battles mixing blades, magic and 7×62 ammo.

Utawarerumono Zan (PS4)

Aquaplus finally cuts ties with the strategy/RPG genre with this new episode called Zan. The old engine is replaced by beautiful technical assets created by Tamsoft. The developer is preparing another superb beat’em all, which will undoubtly gather new series fans.

Legend of Heroes Trails of Cold Steel IV (PS4)

Lots of games are planned for release on September 27^th in Japan, but only one has the attention of JRPG fans. Trails of Cold Steel IV comes swiftly to give some answers to the insane events sorrounding the end of the third one, and offer us the greatest perspective Legend of Heroes has ever known.

E3 2018 Nintendo – Port Adventura

By the sole strengh of its star franchises, Nintendo achieved a vastly successful first year with the Switch. Thanks to 15 million consoles sold during the fiscal term, revenues jumped 100% and the operating result doubled as well, even matching Sony’s gaming division. But letter having twice more revenues, we can conclude that the Kyoto-based firm spends less in its activities. Nintendo’s cost of sales nevertheless soared to more than 600 billion yens, here again a 100% increase over last year. Manufacturing, selling Switch and its games is costly.

Is the situation sustainable for Furukawa’s group ? Switch sells exclusively thanks to in-house IPs : month after month, we observe the same titles in charts around the world. 3rd party games never stand out, and figures in Japan are fairly low for non-Nintendo software on Switch. When there’s no further potential in the mainstream audience, the decline might be quite fast if Nintendo can’t manage to diversify its line-up. The sudden rise of production costs also mean they can’t do much on price leverage, the margin would suffer a lot to much in case of big price cut. Ultimately, Switch can only shatter on the AAA wall, the heart of the industry on which it has no reach. The 3DS business will keep declining in most territories, and we can hardly think that the new console will compensate with a long list of ports.

No doubt then that E3 2018 was a critical moment. Will switch’s swift sales help gather faithful allies ? Will the hefty profits be reinvested in ambitious projects ? At 7 p.m. on June 12th, the answer is crystal-clear : no. The Nintendo Direct E3 is a disaster : few new 3rd party games (of which mostly ports), nothing big in the first party line-up (another Mario Party ? Are we being serious here ?), Fire Emblem Three Houses looks like the worst budget RPGs on PS4, and 2/3 of the Direct was Smash Bros Ultimate’s patch notes. Yeah, another port. The need to fill the blanks to hide the lack of announcements was painful to watch.

Nintendo gave the impression of a desperate manufacturer, withdrawing to its comfort zone to maintain its margin. End of year is barren and 2019 doesn’t look promising either, while Sony and Microsoft are receiving tons of blockbusters. How will Switch’s line-up hold even 30 seconds against Battlefield V, Red Dead Redemption 2, One Piece World Seeker, SoulCalibur VI, Ghost of Tsushima, Gears of War 5, Transference, Kingdom Hearts III, Devil May Cry 5, The Last of Us Part II, The Division 2, Fallout 76, Déraciné, Jump Force, Sekirô, Shadows of the Tomb Raider and the likes ? Of course, part of the mainstream audience will buy Pokemon Let’s Go en masse, but to what extend ?

When all the people potentially attracted by Mario, Pokemon or a hypothetical Animal Crossing have a Switch, the risk of collapse is real. Switch cannot seduce beyond those demographics. It’s miles away from the standards asked by core gamers. The system itself is not powerful enough to let developers fulfill their ambitions and creativity. Once again, short-term focused Nintendo fall behind the race and lacks the means to shape the future.

E3 2018 Sony – Game Stranding

Mid-2018, Sony is still a lot ahead of the competition, even despite the rapid rise of the Switch. God of War gets praised from everywhere and topped 5 million sales in no time, Detroit Become Human has become millionnaire in about 2 weeks. Along the first party power, the vast majority of third parties back the PS4. In Japan as well, PS4 and Vita have a grip on the third party market. The consensus is very clear that the industry leader has little to do in this E3.

Sony’s financial statements also show a bright picture. In the balance sheet, you can spot a meaningful rise if the current assets (+18%), partially reintegrated in capital. The earning report is even better since the operation result has doubled to 734 billlion yens, the net result having been multiplied by five! Nearly very line of product shows some progress, except smartphones still on the wane.Generally speaking, Sony is benefiting from the global economic rally.

Expectedly, the game division is incredibly healthy : 19 millions of PS4 sold this year again, operating result up 30%, PS+ still growing and a digital ratio reaching the insane figure of 32% over the entire fiscal year ! In the first quarter of 2018, 43% of players purchased their games on the Playstation Store. A massive success for Sony and great news for commercial margins. Third parties are thrilled, PS4 is they key to success.

But with such a lead over the competition, what I feared actually happened : Sony gave a short show, without taking much initiative, in a badly paced conference. They barely applied the agenda they’ve been talking about over and over. True, The Last of Us Part II displayed impressive gameplay, Ghost of Tsushima blew everything with Kurosawa-esque atmosphere, and Death Stranding keeps being intriguing about its narrative. But announcements lack some impact compared to Microsoft the day before, and we did not see any guest. Resident Evil 2 Remake was highly anticipated, but it’s not a new game. Niô 2 and Control are true surprises, but we got next to no details about them.

It was downright lame to exclude Deracine from the showcase. First VR experience from From Software, this puzzle game has you retrace the story and psychology of students in some old-fashioned school. This is definitely a whole new kind of experience that deserves more spotlight than Spiderman for example. Still, neither the volume of content nor the pacing can make the difference, Microsoft had more and more surprises. I would have been helpful to gather games like Ace Combat 7, Soulcalibur VI, 13 Sentinels, or the now officially lost FFVII Remake. That gave the impression that Sony is increasing less open to third parties, while Microsoft is constantly improving ties with them.

Not much answer to Switch in terms of hardware either. But is all that even necessary ? 99% of the games here at E3 run best on PS4, and most of the games shown at Microsoft’s conference will automatically sell better on Sony’s console. As for Switch, it represents a mere 30% of games currently in development, mostly A or AA titles by the way. But the new hybrid is no less a potential threat that Sony isn’t really facing, unsettling the market for Japanese games.

Eventually, we shouldn’t forget that in this beginning of end of generation, the E3 battle is more symbolic than really effective in business terms. It has already become more a question of preparing the next generation, and Sony probably wanted to bolster its exclusive line-up in that intend, taking the risk to appear less influential on the international scene. Future will tell if that strategy was wise or not.

Enough of E3! Let’s talk about other games #2017

Zanki Zero (PS4/PSVita)

Survival-RPG produced by the DanganRonpa team, Zanki Zero has the most interesting concept this year. Zanki is an idiom known in shoot’em up which represents the number of starships remaining before game over. In the same logic, the 8 boys and girls of Spike Chunsoft’s devastated world will have to progress and survive until no one remains. Rather advanced in its management, Zanki Zero will ask the player to quell the stress of the characters and even take care of their natural needs.

Shin Yomawari (PS4/PSVita)

Remarkable game of 2016 in the fear department, Yomawari obviously sold well enough to warrant a sequel because Nippon Ichi Software plans to release Shin Yomawari in very territory this year. You will this time control two girls on after another, the world will be larger, including indoor environments among new frightening spots.

Tokyo Clanpool (PSVita)

Compile Heart is on the move on Vita with a brand-new DRPG, the heroine which is… a loli prime minister ! Along with her cabinet, Natsume tackles the exploration of a mysterious black tower that crashed on the Japanese Diet building. Openly political, Tokyo Clanpool features a support rating as central criteria.

Dragon Quest XI (PS4)

After the moral collapse of Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest XI is one of the references JRPG fans must consider. Casino, horse racing, dragon mounting, smith… SquareEnix’s next hit underlines its rich content and classicism to better attract summer players.

The Great Ace Attorney 2 (3DS)

Cool but significantly incomplete, Great Ace Attorney had “sequel” written all over it. That’s now on rails and we’ll again have the pleasure to experience the Victorian and Meiji era with Ryunôsuke, but also from the eyes of his distant cousin Ryutarô.

Legend of Heroes Trails of Cold Steel III (PS4)

Falcom likes to play with fans’ feelings with its first PS4 exclusive. Trails of Cold Steel III reshuffles the roles and calls back popular characters from older episodes. Unexpectedly, Aurelia becomes headmistress of Thors Academy, Tio makes a noticeable entrance and eccentric Dubally will once more stand on your way along with the threatening secret society she belongs to. Meanwhile, no word on your former comrades from Trails of Cold Steel II… Falcom or the master of suspense.

Nights of Azure 2 (PS4/PSVita/Switch)

Obsequious to Nintendo’s orders in exchange for a juicy part of profits in the Fire Emblem Warriors project, KoeiTecmo had left Nights of Azure in the dark the time the were preparing the Switch version. Having recently reappeared in the press, Gust’s action-RPG showed its final casting of Ashule’s partners and detailed the swimsuits offered as an apology for the long delay.

Moero Castle Panzers (PS4)

Compile Heart had a clear purpose when choosing PS4 as the only platform for Moero Castle Panzers. The company intends to offer the usual Moero experience (touching the girls’ body) in the best 3D they can deliver. In terms of battle, we’re now looking to tactical-RPG featuring various jobs depending on the equipped underwear (!).

A look back at some E3 2017 videos

Transference (PSVR)

Only game to have drawn my attention during conferences, Transference is a intriguing UGO from Ubisoft. The publisher takes neurological experiences conducted in the late 90’s as base. It was about transferring human emotions into a digital space. By reflecting that in virtual reality, the French company lets us expect a mystical and deeply frightening experience.

Gran Turismo Sport (PS4)

With its Jurassic Park-like music, Gran Turismo Sport comes to reminds us that racing simulation is not just about teraflops. It’s also about impressive racing tracks, joyful atmosphere, great music and lavish show. As many aspects that Sony’s exclusive won’t lack when facing Forza 7.

Code Vein (PS4/XB1/PC)

Not very different from the trailer of last month, Code Vein’s trailer (strangely shown during Microsoft conference, BandaiNamco will have a lot of explaining to do at home) still’s worth a glimpse. It’s kind of a God Eater of darker design and world, with slower but more powerful gameplay. But more than that, the giant leap in graphics and animation is especially exciting.

13 Sentinels Aegis Rim (PS4/PSVita)

Announced two years ago, we still don’t know what 13 Sentinels Aegis Rim is for sure. Atlus brings it to E3 without even giving detail on its platforms or its genre… We therefore have to kill time watching this beautiful trailer until the publisher finally reveals everything. The music has a striking sense of grandeur, and the devastated and soulless Earth is intriguing.

E3 2017 Nintendo – The Longest 25 Minutes

The Nintendo defense force has faith. Despite a tiny launch line-up and a cloudy future, Switch entered the gaming market with a bang. Stocks issues keep being recorded in all continents, the situation being extremely serious in Japan where costumers have to earn the right to purchase via lotteries organized in stores. As the demand seems to be never ending, observers wonder if we might be witnessing a Wii-like phenomenon.

Before entering the (dramatically important) analysis of Switch’s debut, let’s have an overview of the firm’s yearly financials. Here, we must stress that despite the 2.74m Switch shipments, the fastest-selling Pokemon game ever and the “greatest Zelda of all time”, revenues still go down 3%. Operating result melted 10% in the wake of new expenditures. The net result, however, skyrockets by 521% and this is where it gets interesting. Those profits comes from 3 items : minority interests bring 20 billion yens (Pokemon GO dividends, no doubt), the exchange market was 13 billion more favorable compared to 2016, and the company earned no less than 60 billions by selling securities. By doing the maths, you realize that video games actually don’t make more profits than last year. Those artificial profits hides the truth, which is that the business is flat due to the fact that Switch cannot compensate WiiU’s rapid collapse. On the next fiscal term, 3DS shipments should go down, increasing the pressure on the new system.

The big question is : who’s buying Switch ? Who are those who frantically throw themselves on the first Switch in sight ? With 2.76 millions copies sold, Zelda Breath of the Wild has over 100% attach rate. Mario Kart 8 DX also has a high percentage, with half of Switch owners getting it at launch. 1,2 Switch is stalling, and many ports achieve mediocre sales. My interpretation is that Nintendo fans become increasingly radical : they want more Nintendo, as soon as they can grab the stuff. True, some core gamers at large join them in the Switch install base, the offer being a lot more attractive than WiiU in its time. But data is lacking to give solid conclusions. August 31^st will be key in ascertaining Switch’s attractiveness as Nights of Azure 2 hit PS4, PSVita and Switch at the same time. FIFA Switch eventually came to be FIFA18 but will come in a weaker version, lacking Forstbite engine and story mode. The only question will be whether Nintendo fans quit playing Splatoon 2 to embrace EA’s football.

Let’s stress that those will be the only occasions in which Switch and PS4 will directly face each other : despite the stupefying sales pace, 3^rd parties around the world do not care about the hybrid system. NIS America may have shipped 100K units of Disgaea 5 Complete, NIS Japan disregards that and is making all its next games for PS4, PSVita and PC. Not even a little port for Switch ! Very surprising given the business opportunities that were proven by Disgaea 5 Complete’s good reception. BandaiNamco, who’s regularly provided Dragon Ball Z games for 3DS, and who’s porting Xenoverse 2 on Switch, ditches Nintendo’s new system in the case of Dragon Ball Fighter Z, one of the best games of E3. Code Vein, Namco’s brand new post-apocalyptic action IP, is skipping Switch too. The last direct that had revealed Nights of Azure 2, Fate Extella and Senran Kagura for Switch shook the web. But after this E3, we can conclude that Nintendo merely reactivated old alliances, KoeiTecmo and Marvelous obeying the Big N every time a fat check comes from Kyoto. In Japan, the balance of powers has yet to turn in Nintendo’s favor.

In the West, no one will be surprised in seeing large publishers shunning the Switch. Bungie was recently saying that Destiny 2 on Switch would be “unrealistic” because the idea behind the Switch doesn’t fit with always online. Bethesda is not doing more than the Skyrim super late port, and is almost being cynical in the way it keeps all its new games for PS4 and XboxOne. Despite outsourcing the development of Mario + Rabbids, Ubisoft has no big game to give in exchange of borrowing the Mario franchise : Switch ends up having the usual Just Dance, and Starlink Battle for Atlas, a shoot’em up based on toy models. One after the others, AAA titles shine at E3, and for none of them Switch gets the spotlight. In the mid/long term, Switch can only choke form the lack of AAA, not even having AA titles to resist. In fact, the situation hasn’t really changed compared to January 13^th : Nintendo is trying to find its way alone and the line-up is as weak as before… As I said last year, the “perfect Zelda” achieved nothing in the console war.

Nintendo intends to ship 10m Switch by next March, but that would merely make it reach WiiU’s final figure. Once every Nintendo fan has the system (adding some core gamers interested in some Nintendo IPs), how will Switch extend its influence without any of the big names that dominate today’s gaming market ? After this E3, Switch welcome a mere 10% of upcoming titles and no 3^rd party developer came up with something new in the tiny Direct of just 25 minutes. And on the 1^st party side, nothing big enough to threaten Sony’s and Microsoft’s market share. True, we got a glimpse of the ever returning Yoshi and Kirby, but no doubt they’re quicly developed low end games aimed at luring the masses. Xenoblade 2 received a new, improved design by jumping on the bouncy harem RPG bandwagon and Fire Emblem Warriors seems to have quite an effective casting. But those two seem isolated, not mention that their release window is still vague. To Call of Duty WWII and Far Cry 5, Nintendo hasn’t got more than a simple Metroid Prime 4 logo to oppose. The competition must be stricken with fear… Only Mario Aliasing Odyssey got a definite release date, which leaves room for many delays. In the current state of affairs, the Switch is trying to conquer the world with an army of late ports, a flurry of indies and a 500-yen Senran Kagura application. Not sure it’s gonna be enough…

By the way and if Sony and Nintendo both achieve their objectives, Switch would be largely dominated by PS4 in its first full year, Sony expecting no less than 18 million PS4. The gap would only grow whatever the reason (no enough supply or loss of interest). That said, there is no doubt that Switch will eventually sell several times more than WiiU. It’s the most powerful handheld on the market, which gives it a potential market of at least 25 million costumers in Japan alone. Even without 3^rd parties to support it, the mainstream public (who still buys 3DS) should guarantee continuous sales. It will also get a main Pokemon game and a main Fire Emblem strategy-RPG, so that’s millions more clients in the bag. And with no successor for PSVita, many Japanese developers may need Switch to tap the handheld market. This is the major subject of the next few years : will Japanese 3^rd parties make sufficent profit on PS4 alone ? Will their technological level improve to the point Switch ports would become impossible ? Monster Hunter World and Code Vein already signify their PS4pro/XboxOneX optimization : even before releasing, Switch was out of the league. If that becomes a general trend, then the current divide of the Japanese market will continue : older core gamers playing on PS4 in cold war with a mainstream majority focused on casual experience. At best, Nintendo can aim at peaceful coexistence with Sony, both system being complementary and a decent number of gamers playing on both.

As suprising as it may seem after 3 months of massive success of its new console, Nintendo is still a tiny player on the world stage. Not a single publisher has faith in Switch even though it’s flying off shelves, and the manufacturer itself isn’t strong enough to match ambitious and innovative rivals. This E3 is further proof that Nintendo is leagues behind and isolated from everyone.